2026-27 Season Preview · #1 of 15

#1 Penn State

MatScouts Crystal Ball projected 2027 NCAA top 15 (Willie Saylor), mid-summer update

Number one, Penn State. You knew that, everybody knew that. This team scored 181.5 points in March, the most of anyone on this list. The only real drama in Happy Valley is who's in the starting lineup come March. Whoever it is will probably be on the podium, and more than likely near the center of it.

There is production to replace. Levi Haines moves out of the lineup and onto the senior circuit, taking 26.5 points and an 80% bonus rate at NCAAs with him. For most programs, losing 26.5 points would be a full-on crisis. For Penn State, it's just another Tuesday. This is one of the best teams in the history of the sport. Can Cael hear the footsteps of the team chasing him? Maybe, but he isn't worried.

Returning NCAA tournament points

Of the 172.5 team points Penn State scored at the 2026 NCAA Championships, wrestlers accounting for 125 points (72%) are back in the room this season. 47.5 points walked out the door. Hover over the bar for the breakdown.

2026 NCAA team points: returning vs. leaving

0172.5 pts scored in 2026
Returning Departing

NCAA finish by year

Where Penn State actually finished at the NCAA Championships each year (solid green line), next to where our development model expected a roster with these ratings to finish (dashed gray line). Hover over a point for the score.

Team finish at the NCAA Championships, 2021 to 2026

202120222023202420252026
Actual finish Model-expected finish

Impact Score

Impact score is our model’s one-number rating of a wrestler’s season, earned in the conference tournament and the NCAA bracket: the deeper the March run, the higher the score. Josh Barr’s 163 was the best returning score on this roster last season.

Add up every season this roster wrestled in 2025-26 and it comes to 1,237 impact. 927 of it (75%) is already back in the room, 310 walked out the door to graduation or the portal.

Career impact score entering 2026-27

  1. Mitchell Mesenbrink174 lbs 429
  2. Shayne Van Ness149 lbs 345
  3. Josh Barr197 lbs 256
  4. Luke Lilledahl125 lbs 247
  5. Rocco Welsh184 lbs 235

Roster

Projected 2026-27 lineup

Every weight, who is projected to hold it, what they did in the 2025-26 postseason, and who held the spot last March. All numbers are conference-tournament and NCAA matches only. Impact score is our model’s rating of a season: the 2025-26 number is what they earned, the 2026-27 number is what the model expects next.

125

Luke Lilledahl

Sophomore
1st2026 NCAA Tournament
1st2026 Conference Tournament
2025-26 Postseason Starter
Luke Lilledahl (So)1st at NCAAs Back in 2026-27
2026-27 (expected)118Impact Score
2025-26154Impact Score
2025-26 Postseason Stats
Bonus Rate25%
Takedowns / Match1.5
Nearfall Pts / Match0.3
Riding Time Points3
Escape Pts / Match1.0
Reversals / Match0
133

Marcus Blaze

Freshman
DNP2026 NCAA Tournament
2nd2026 Conference Tournament
2025-26 Postseason Starter
Marcus Blaze (Fr)DNP at NCAAs (3 seed) Back in 2026-27
2026-27 (expected)37Impact Score
2025-2693Impact Score
2025-26 Postseason Stats
Bonus Rate67%
Takedowns / Match2.0
Nearfall Pts / Match0.9
Riding Time Points2
Escape Pts / Match0.9
Reversals / Match0.3
141

Nathan Desmond

No 2025-26 postseason matches. Stats begin when they reach a bracket.

2025-26 Postseason Starter
Braeden Davis (Jr)DNP at NCAAs (14 seed) Back in 2026-27
2026-27 (expected)5Impact Score
2025-26–Impact Score
2025-26 Postseason Stats

No postseason data yet.

149

Shayne Van Ness

Fifth Year
2nd2026 NCAA Tournament
1st2026 Conference Tournament
2025-26 Postseason Starter
Shayne Van Ness (5th year)2nd at NCAAs Graduated
2026-27 (expected)101Impact Score
2025-26145Impact Score
2025-26 Postseason Stats
Bonus Rate57%
Takedowns / Match2.1
Nearfall Pts / Match1.0
Riding Time Points0
Escape Pts / Match0.9
Reversals / Match0.1
157

PJ Duke

Freshman
3rd2026 NCAA Tournament
1st2026 Conference Tournament
2025-26 Postseason Starter
PJ Duke (Fr)3rd at NCAAs Back in 2026-27
2026-27 (expected)72Impact Score
2025-26133Impact Score
2025-26 Postseason Stats
Bonus Rate75%
Takedowns / Match3.8
Nearfall Pts / Match0.2
Riding Time Points2
Escape Pts / Match0.6
Reversals / Match0
165

Jayden James

No 2025-26 postseason matches. Stats begin when they reach a bracket.

2025-26 Postseason Starter
Mitchell Mesenbrink (Jr)1st at NCAAs Back in 2026-27
2026-27 (expected)52Impact Score
2025-26–Impact Score
2025-26 Postseason Stats

No postseason data yet.

174

Mitchell Mesenbrink

Junior
1st2026 NCAA Tournament
1st2026 Conference Tournament
2025-26 Postseason Starter
Levi Haines (Sr)1st at NCAAs Graduated
2026-27 (expected)118Impact Score
2025-26161Impact Score
2025-26 Postseason Stats
Bonus Rate88%
Takedowns / Match3.4
Nearfall Pts / Match1.5
Riding Time Points4
Escape Pts / Match0.9
Reversals / Match0.1
184

Rocco Welsh

Junior
2nd2026 NCAA Tournament
1st2026 Conference Tournament
2025-26 Postseason Starter
Rocco Welsh (Jr)2nd at NCAAs Back in 2026-27
2026-27 (expected)101Impact Score
2025-26144Impact Score
2025-26 Postseason Stats
Bonus Rate29%
Takedowns / Match1.9
Nearfall Pts / Match0
Riding Time Points1
Escape Pts / Match1.5
Reversals / Match0
197

Josh Barr

Junior
1st2026 NCAA Tournament
1st2026 Conference Tournament
2025-26 Postseason Starter
Josh Barr (Jr)1st at NCAAs Back in 2026-27
2026-27 (expected)118Impact Score
2025-26163Impact Score
2025-26 Postseason Stats
Bonus Rate88%
Takedowns / Match4.6
Nearfall Pts / Match0.8
Riding Time Points3
Escape Pts / Match0.5
Reversals / Match0.1
285

Cole Mirasola

Sophomore
DNP2026 NCAA Tournament
5th2026 Conference Tournament
2025-26 Postseason Starter
Cole Mirasola (So)DNP at NCAAs (9 seed) Back in 2026-27
2026-27 (expected)37Impact Score
2025-2643Impact Score
2025-26 Postseason Stats
Bonus Rate40%
Takedowns / Match1.6
Nearfall Pts / Match0
Riding Time Points0
Escape Pts / Match0.8
Reversals / Match0

Incoming recruits

The 2026 signing class, ranked by final big-board position. Expected entry score is the impact our model projects for a recruit’s first college season, set by where they finished on the board.

  • Jayden Jamesprojected at 165 · expected entry score 52#3 board
  • Sam Herringexpected entry score 5#27 board
  • Elijah Brownexpected entry score 5#36 board

Transfer portal

The 2026 cycle, in and out: no moves yet. Nobody has entered or left this roster through the portal since the season ended.

The full portal history, cycle by cycle, is in the Development section below.

2026 NCAA team stats

What this roster did in the 2026 bracket, and where that ranks among every team that scored at the tournament.

136 Takedowns #1 of 67
26 Bonus-rate wins #1 of 45
44 Nearfall points #1 of 47
40 Escapes #13 of 70
6 Reversals #7 of 45
10 Riding-time points #5 of 57

How this team compares to all of D1

Bonus rate

Penn State63%
All D131%

Takedowns per match

Penn State2.7
All D11.0

Team points per qualifier

Penn State17.3
All D11.5

Medians across the 70 programs that scored at the 2026 NCAA Championships.

Takedowns per match

2026 postseason pace, projected lineup only.

  1. Josh Barr197 lbs 4.6
  2. PJ Duke157 lbs 3.8
  3. Mitchell Mesenbrink174 lbs 3.4
  4. Shayne Van Ness149 lbs 2.1
  5. Marcus Blaze133 lbs 2.0

Nearfall points per match

2026 postseason pace, projected lineup only.

  1. Mitchell Mesenbrink174 lbs 1.5
  2. Shayne Van Ness149 lbs 1.0
  3. Marcus Blaze133 lbs 0.9
  4. Josh Barr197 lbs 0.8
  5. Luke Lilledahl125 lbs 0.3

Development

Recruiting and the portal, 2020 → today

Every signee and every portal move this program has made since 2020, and what came of them. Expected is the rating our model projects: a first college season is measured against the wrestler’s big-board entry score, later seasons against the development model. Actual is the rating they earned. Click a wrestler to open their score card: the season-by-season receipt behind those career totals.